On 14 September 2026, the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin signed a joint declaration in Cardiff asserting their nations’ right
to self-determination and a future in the EU.
No UK immigration law has changed as a result, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham has ruled out new referendums — but the declaration has renewed questions about what independence would mean for borders, visas and settlement status
What happened this week
A striking political moment took place in Cardiff this week. John Swinney (SNP), Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru) and Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Féin) put their names to a joint declaration asserting that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have the right to selfdetermination, and that their future “belongs in the European Union.” It is the first time nationalist leaders from all three nations
have signed a coordinated statement like this.
For anyone living in the UK on a visa, or advising clients who are, the natural question is: does this change anything? At the moment, the honest answer is no — but it is worth understanding what has actually happened, what Westminster has said, and what
genuinely remains unknown if any part of the UK were ever to become independent.
What was actually signed, and what wasn't
The Cardiff declaration is a political statement, not legislation. It commits the three parties to campaigning for self-determination and EU membership; it does not — and legally cannot — trigger a referendum, a border change, or any amendment to the Immigration Rules. None of the three nations has a unilateral legal route to leave the UK.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office in July 2026, has already ruled out granting a referendum on Irish reunification, calling it “off the table.” Public support for independence also varies significantly by nation — polling puts it at roughly 47% in Scotland, 36% in Northern Ireland and 32% in Wales — so this is a long way from a settled political direction, let alone a legal one.
For current visa holders, EU Settlement Scheme members, and anyone with an application in progress, nothing about their status, their rights, or the process they are following has changed.
What would happen to borders, visas and citizenship — if it ever came to that
This is the part where genuine uncertainty starts, and it is important not to overstate how settled any of it is. Researchers who have studied this question in depth, including Oxford’s Migration Observatory during the 2014 Scottish independence debate, have consistently concluded that these questions “do not have obvious answers.”
Borders. Nationalist parties have generally argued that no hard border controls would be needed between an independent nation and the rest of the UK. Past UK governments have pushed back, warning that a newly independent nation with a more liberal immigration policy could become a route into the rest of the UK — which would put pressure toward checks on both sides, not just
at ports and airports.
EU membership. The declaration frames EU membership as the goal, but re-accession is not quick or automatic. It would mean a formal application and negotiation process, likely taking years, and it is not yet clear whether an independent Scotland or Wales would join Schengen — a decision that would shape the whole border question above.
Existing visa and settlement status. There is currently no proposal, official or otherwise, covering what would happen to people already living in these nations under a UK visa, on the EU Settlement Scheme, or partway through the route to British citizenship. This is arguably the single biggest gap in the current debate, and anyone offering a confident answer on it is speculating.
Free movement between nations. Even the basic question of whether UK, Irish, Scottish or Welsh citizens would keep the equivalent of today’s freedom to live and work across these islands is unresolved — precedents like the long-standing Common Travel Area with Ireland offer a partial model, but nothing has been proposed for a scenario involving Scotland or Wales.
What this means if you're currently applying for a UK visa
In short: proceed as normal. The Immigration Rules, visa routes and settlement pathways in force today are unaffected by this week’s declaration, and any constitutional change of this scale would require years of negotiation and primary legislation before it touched individual immigration status. If you are partway through a Spouse or Partner visa application, working toward Indefinite Leave to Remain, or holding status under the EU Settlement Scheme, none of that changes based on this news.
How our immigration solicitors can help
Political stories like this understandably prompt anxious questions from clients and prospective clients — “does this affect my visa?” being the most common. Our immigration solicitors monitor genuine changes to the Immigration Rules closely, including recent EU Settlement Scheme updates and changes to the Spouse and Partner visa route, and we are glad to give a clear, current answer on anything that has actually changed rather than what is being speculated about. If you have a British-citizen child or are considering how any of this might interact with British citizenship by birth, our team can talk through your specific circumstances.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.
